Insights - Kovitz Newsletter 4Q22
Jan 18 2023

It doesn't hurt me. Do you wanna feel how it feels? Do you want to know - know that it doesn't hurt me?

"Running Up That Hill", Kate Bush

I think we can just come right out and say it: 2022 was a pretty dreadful year as far as global markets are concerned. Despite gaining over 7% in the last quarter of the year, the stock market ended the year down about 18%. International markets fared little better, as developed markets declined 14% and emerging markets ended the year off 20%. 

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While there were a number of periods of clear skies and sunshine in the market this year – including the early part of the fourth quarter – storm clouds cast a dark shadow over the market for most of the year. During times of market turmoil, we find it extremely helpful to reread what we consider one of the most important paragraphs about investing Benjamin Graham ever wrote. 

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The macro environment is tough to predict. Economic experts naturally attempt to make rational estimations for the future that reside within some reasonable band of historical deviations, but global markets find ways of creating low probability outcomes with regularity. This year was no exception. Let’s compare several of these predictions from the beginning of the year versus reality.

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